After spending some time looking at our route data, I wanted to highlight a few of my favorite metrics that Ive found. Again it seems instructive to compare Thomas to Jones. This is the key to solve the problem: a receiver's openness is compared to the typical receiver's openness given the route, coverage, and depth, rather than the raw assessment. Now, by itself, that doesn't make Targets per Route . Titans quarterback Will Levis opens up about emotional draft day. The elements of savvy route running footwork, . It wasn't his frame but his footwork -- a fake outside, an adjustment upfield and a sharp cut at the top of the route -- that created the space necessary for a 51-yard catch-and-run on that play. Forty-eight percent of Thomass 185 targets came on passes 5 yards or less downfield in 2019. Of Thomas' league-leading 299 yards gained on slants, 162 came after the catch. The Vikings pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history last week, but the Next Gen Stats analytics team says it wasn't the most improbable comeback of the season. In this case, the adjustment is a simple adjusted plus-minus among the QB and his receivers. As previously discussed, Robert Foster hit those thresholds when it comes to yards per route run during his rookie year, but has yet to find fantasy relevance in the NFL. 4) Stefon Diggs, Vikings (now with Bills), 72) Ted Ginn Jr., Saints (now with Bears), The most targeted routes outside of the WR Screen? The resulting lists have reasonably strong face validity players at the top of the leaderboards tend to be widely regarded as good route runners suggesting SOE could be useful as a descriptive metric. Previous Season Next Season. . Receiving stats on short passes for Michael Thomas, including separation over expected (SOE) and expected points added (EPA) per play. The, The most valuable routes by expected points added per target were the, It's worth noting four of the five most valuable routes by EPA per target are. The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. When looking at any metric or measurable, it is always best to marry it up with other available data points to paint a clearer picture. The Real Reason Presidential Candidates Form Exploratory Committees, Aug. 10, 2020, On its face, that seems like an outrageous question. The second season in a row that he led the NFL in catches. Can Carolina risk letting other teams chase after him? We cant say anything about the skill of receivers who fail to earn targets. Advanced Receiving. In fantasy football, volume matters much more than efficiency for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. What does that mean? Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? The aim now is to do the same thing for receiving. These statistics provide a detailed view of how a WR accumulates Interestingly, Thielen ranked 10th-best in targets percentage while Diggs ranked 24th, which might help justify the ADP disparity (11th to Diggs 16th), but its not a given that Kirk Cousins will prefer Thielen to the degree Case Keenum had. For instance, short passes are, on average, associated with more separation than deeper passes because a defenders top priority is to avoid getting beat deep. There isnt much evidence to support the idea that Mike Thomas is anything but an elite football talent. All route runners were included, regardless of whether or not they were targeted; given that we could not find a difference between the shapes of targeted routes and non-targeted routes, we saw no reason to train on only targeted routes. Diggs led the league in catch rate above expectation (minimum five targets on post routes) last season at +39.9 percent, turning unlikely plays into big gains. 1 year ago by Antonio Losada. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. Tyron Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL according to Yards Per Route Run. Previous post: Worst Passer Ratings In Every Year Since the Merger, Next post: The Top Quarterbacks And The Receivers They Threw It To. Who is No. Its not very sensitive to outliers, which makes it sticky. The Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies 14 unheralded players who should be kept off the free agency market by their squads. Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Because he was below average for this data set, and everyone in the set gets regressed to the mean of the group, he benefits. The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. You can't go wrong with any of these guys when throwing deep over the middle. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. To do this successfully, it takes a receiver who can win off the line, cut inside at an angle and catch a bullet from the quarterback for a solid gain. With our new route-classification model, we can evaluate which receivers are essentially the most predictable -- or different from the average. But we can gain some precision by instead using Year N Yards per Target and Year N Targets per Route Run to predict Year N+1 Yards per Route Run: Yr N+1 YPRR = 0.062 + 5.09 * Yr_N_TPRR + 0.0656 * Yr_N_Y/T (R^2 = 0.23). The Next Gen Stats Team uses its draft model to identify the five best value picks in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft -- including two Georgia defenders selected by the Philadelphia Eagles. jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_3').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_3', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But it is interesting to know, and it is useful in making predictions. At the individual player level, we can learn more about the micro nuances of route running. The metrics measure the degree to which the receiver exceeds or falls short of that benchmark. Let's dig into the methodology behind the Route Recognition model: The Next Gen Stats player-tracking system records the x-y location, speed, acceleration, direction and orientation of all 22 players on the field in real time. We know the Saints' Michael Thomas and Seahawks' Tyler Lockett are great receivers, but how do they perform on a per-route basis? Similar to wide receivers hitting one WR1 season during their careers, there is a significant jump when looking at the total number of WR1/WR2 seasons once you incorporate a minimum of 250 routes run during a wide receivers rookie season. To avoid noise in the data from broken plays (during which pass catchers often stop running their assigned routes) and player movement after the catch (which would not tell us much about the efficacy of any given route), all routes were capped at either the moment the ball was passed forward or at a given time (4.6 seconds after the snap for wideout routes and 4 seconds after the snap for backfield routes) -- whichever came first. And there is a pretty clear answer to that question. Chark and Kenny Stills at the top of the list the stretch X receivers whose job is to take the top off a defense. Look, there he is again! In fantasy football, volume matters much more than efficiency for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. PFFs Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position. To predict a receivers future yards per target, we use only 28% of his prior yards per target average. His YAC on hitches was second-best in the NFL, trailing only Keenan Allen. The other three are kind of interesting. Subscribe:iTunes|Google Play|Spotify|Stitcher|SoundCloud|TuneIn|RSS. But there again were confronted with confounders that make apportioning credit and blame difficult.2 For example, some QBs throw with more anticipation than others, releasing the ball before a receiver has made his break and created the separation necessary for a successful completion. PFF's Fantasy Football Expected Points tool is primarily used for identifying potential over and undervalued players. These short passes, however, are where Michael Thomas frequently shines. So while wed like more data, we should probably expect players who show the ability to separate above expectation on routes at these depths to continue to do so.7, Best and worst receiver seasons on intermediate passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. Thomas caught 87.9 percent of his targets, landing in the top five in that category. One is to measure how consistent they are from year to year. To try to capture the results of this game of cat and mouse between receiver and defender, we used NFL Next Gen Stats data that measures the distance between a receiver and the nearest defender at key moments in each play. Which prospects selected in Rounds 2 and 3 project to be steals? Receiving stats on short passes for Jarvis Landry, including separation over expected (SOE) and expected points added (EPA) per play, Wide receivers make the bulk of their high-value receptions on passes at intermediate depths (between 5 and 15 air yards). Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question? (You can access our route data for wide receivers here, running backs here, and tight ends here, if youre a PFF Elite subscriber.). View wide receiver stats for the 2022 NFL season. For Hopkins, 125 of his 257 came after the catch. For more from John, check out his archive orfollow him@TheBauerClub. Each of the three components are weighted in a way to best match real-world production, specifically a blend of predominantly yards per route with a bit of yards per target added. In the three seasons for which we have Next Gen data, Thomas has regularly posted high EPA per play values on these short targets and has been above average in creating separation at the catch point in two of the past three seasons. I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with, While there are some issues with survivorship bias here, Im not sure (1) how to get around them, and (2) that those concerns bias the results in a way thats more biased towards one of. The Buffalo Bills added additional weapons in Cole Beasley and John Brown, while also bolstering their defense and making a greater commitment to the run. ranked him first among all wide receivers, creates and maintains separation from a defender, the conversation for best receiver in the league. We use pass accuracy data from ESPN's video analysis tracking to adjust both the Catch Score and YAC Score based on the accuracy (high, low, ahead, behind) and intent of the throw. Latest on Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN It is also important to keep an eye on the changing landscape that is the NFL. Thomas wins the yardage battle between the two (382 to 318), helping us find some separation between a couple of receivers that are incredibly dangerous when running shallow routes over the middle. 38) Yards Per Route Run. By running away from the pressing defender, not through him. Since depth of target is so important in determining separation, we grouped plays into buckets depending on whether a pass attempt was short, intermediate or deep and created an SOE leaderboard for each. Two tight ends Evan Engram of the New York Giants and Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles top the list of receiver seasons with the highest separation over expected on short throws (5 air yards or less).5 Ertzs targets especially were high value. This shouldn't be thought of as falling short of a 1.0 correlation, because RTMs are hopefully doing a good job of subtracting the influences of context, as in routes, depths, coverages, double teams, quarterback skill and so on. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase. The lone outlier there is Robert Foster, and his situation clearly changed from 2018 to 2019. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. As soon as I saw A.J. In those six games, Beasley caught 21 passes for 210 yards. This problem vexed me for months, but about a year ago I thought of a way to crack it. To view standard stats, check out our WR Stats reports. ESPN Stats & Information Group. Not only is there a significant advantage to hitting the 2.00 yards per route run threshold in ones rookie year, but there is also a clear difference when that wide receiver ran at least 250 routes his rookie year. Brown, and Hunter Renfrow all ran at least 250 routes while also having at least 2.00 yards per route run. Keegan Abdoo meticulously explains how this could significantly impact Andy Reid's offense -- and fuel Lou Anarumo's defense. We think these weights make logical sense, in that a receiver has to get open to have the chance to make a catch. At the time, Jernigan had barely seen the field, so he hadnt run many routes, either. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. With the free agency frenzy right around the corner, the Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies the three biggest needs for each AFC team. With hitches, there's some uncertainty for cornerbacks: Is their man running a hitch or is it going to be a go (or fade) route? But if he never plays again, he have caught 83 passes for 1,201 yards in his final 16 NFL games, split between his rookie and sophomore seasons. Have you ever wondered what sets George Kittle apart from Travis Kelce, or what makes A.J. Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? The overall score correlates at 0.52. Looking at this historical data and also pairing it with metrics such as draft capital, breakout age, college dominator, etc. It's pretty simple: Thomas wins in the short game and will make you pay if you don't stop him. Will the Eagles' pass rush befuddle Patrick Mahomes? It helps paint a more complete picture of each receiver's skill set and . Ultimately, the hope is these metrics are used to understand and explain how pass-catchers perform, rather than simply ranking them from best to worst. Now, by definition, if yards per target is less sticky than yards per route run, than targets per route run has to be the stickiest. The Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies 14 unheralded players who should be kept off the free agency market by their squads. Another interesting feature of short-target SOE is that a players ability to consistently get open on short throws appears to be mostly nonexistent. Ginn ran a, Not listed in the bottom five, but relevant based on his reputation: Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf ranked 66th out of 72 receivers by our measure of route versatility. Some plays and situations lend themselves to a lot or a little YAC, so YAC Score doesn't measure mere yards but rather the yards the receiver was able to generate beyond the expected amount. CNNs allow us to engage with the spatial nature of our dataset (that is, where each player is on the field in a given play), while LSTM networks allow us to engage with the temporal nature of our dataset (what happens as the play develops over time). PFF's wide receiver rating is an individualized statistic that plays off the general knowledge of the passer rating statistic. With the free agency frenzy right around the corner, the Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies the three biggest needs for each AFC team. Find out more. It was an extremely small sample, but Seals-Jones was easily our most efficient tight end on a per-route basis last year. But what we have here is a backup thrust into a starting role due to injury, and a player who then produced like a star receiver over the final 10 quarters of the season. Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. And compared to Atlantas Julio Jones a receiver whose natural talent and skill set are rarely questioned Thomas comes out ahead on both our separation and value metrics. Tracking fifth-year options for 2020 first-rounders: Which were picked up, and which were declined? With the 2023 NFL Draft right around the corner, who are the can't-miss prospects in this talent crop? NOTE: The two players ranked below who changed teams this offseason -- Bills WR Stefon Diggs and Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins -- are listed with the teams they played for last season, since these rankings are based on their performance in 2019. Best and worst receiver seasons on short passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. Perhaps its no surprise that in the ultimate team sport, assigning credit for something even as seemingly straightforward as separation is complicated. Receivers like Thomas and Beckham run them well, and to great success. In his second season as a pro -- and first in head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense -- the Cardinals' Christian Kirk ranked as the most versatile route runner of the 2019 season. Parker went deep plenty in 2019, running 155 go routes and seeing 36 targets on those routes. Time Period. Robby went on to score 74% of his total PPR points on routes run from the slot compared to a measly 26% on . . Jones averaged 6.0 fewer routes run per game than Hopkins over this stretch. Finally, we see the continued effect of depth of target on separation. While it is certainly vital to look at the broader picture, it is clear that yards per route run is a metric you need to incorporate into your fantasy football vernacular. Stat Type. I believe player profile has them too. Can Nick Sirianni successfully match wits with Andy Reid? Ricky Seals-Jones ran only 68 routes last year but drew 28 targets for 201 yards and three touchdowns on those routes. We approached routes run by players aligned in the backfield separately from routes run by players aligned out wide, in the slot or tight, because of clear differences in route archetypes. We think this also makes sense. Looking at the 2019 wide receiver draft class, there are several players that fall into these buckets. In fact, if we instituted a minimum of, say, 15 receptions on out routes, only DeAndre Hopkins (86.4%) and Calvin Ridley (80%) even come close to Thomas' catch rate. Latest on Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN . Of course, when comparing Stills numbers to Johnsons, one might note that Johnson was playing with EJ Manuel and Thaddeus Lewis while Stills was playing with Drew Brees, which provides some explanation for the drastic differences between the two receivers in yards per target. Regular-season passes of 5 air yards or less. Regular-season passes of between 5 and 15 air yards, minimum of 40 targets. Follow Mike on Twitter @MBandNFL. At 6-feet, 226 pounds, Brown wins with size, speed and power. These include route type, depth of route, coverage type (Cover 3, Man 2 and so on), position at snap (wide, slot, tight, backfield), distance from sideline, time after snap, down/distance/yard line and whether or not the play featured play-action. He's no DK Metcalf (his 6-4, 229-pound former Ole Miss teammate), but that actually works to his advantage, as his 226 pounds are well-packed into his frame to allow him to box out defenders, catch the ball and then outrun them to the end zone, with a stiff-arm packed in as a complimentary parting gift. Real-time route classification enables us to contextualize the passing game in new ways. Unlike running backs, weight and height are correlated to wide receiver and tight end production, because height expands the player's catch radius. The Next Gen Stats analytics team uses its newly launched Expected Return Yards model to identify the top 10 returners of the 2022 regular season. He led the league lead in catch rate above expectation (actual catch percentage compared to expected catch percentage), but among the top 25 wide receivers in that category (minimum 50 targets), he's the only one who averaged fewer than 10 air yards per target (8.1). provides a great one-number summary of just how efficient a receiver is on a down-by-down basis. The values corresponding to each route represent league averages over the last two seasons. In some ways, TPRR is like completion percentage. Well, now we have an answer to those questions and many more. Quarterbacks are clearly an essential factor in whether a receiver makes catches and gains yards. Part of this effect might be due to scheme, but unfortunately scheme and signal-caller overlap too much to parse those effects apart. NOTE: EPA/target is expected points added per target; this measures the value of individual plays in terms of points comparing the down, distance and field position situation at the start of the play relative to the end of the play. Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREEYour All-Access Ticket to the Pro Football Reference Database. Here, we see that Y/T is not very sticky. He may be a bust, but it wasnt because of what he did on the field. Today, we are introducing another new machine-learning tool: the Route Recognition model, which classifies routes by type, in real time, with the help of player-tracking data. No, I'm a California resident looking for the California Consumer Privacy Act form. For instance, DeAndre Hopkins played on over 90 percent of his teams snaps in every game he played last year. All of Denver, Miami, and Minnesota will have a new quarterback under center, which muddies things here, as does Oakland having a new offensive play-caller (Jon Gruden). Three receivers who met the 75-target minimum were targeted at least 10 times on corner routes: Robinson, Keenan Allen and Robby Anderson, who each saw 12 targets on such routes. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. They won't know it's a hitch until it's a hitch -- if the route is run well. Future iterations of the model will look to delve deeper into the route tree to account for the nuance of route-running at the pro level. On average, wide receivers that hit 2.00 yards per route run and run at least 250 routes in their rookie campaign are 41% more likely to be a WR1 at any time during their career than a wide receiver that hit the 2.00 yards per route run threshold alone. So, what can we do with this information, and why should we care? 25 games played) he ranks 29th in receiving fantasy points per game. We've already provided a metrics-based breakdown of the best players at key positions this summer, but the geniuses at Next Gen Stats don't rest on their laurels. Heres the best-fit formula: N+1 TPRR = 0.062 + 0.671 * TPRR (R^2 = 0.41). What is also encouraging is the three components of RTM generally do not correlate with each other. Brown's 2019 season was buoyed by his ability to generate yards after catch despite a mediocre Catch Score, and that Cooper Kupp's 'amazing 2021 season did not rely on any one specific ability but was consistently solid across all three components: Here are the top-five seasons in YAC Score since 2017: The top-five Catch Score seasons include who we might expect and then Marvin Jones Jr. Jones had an amazing season for the Lions in 2017, with 1,101 yards and a league-leading 18.0 yards per catch. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? Will the Eagles' pass rush befuddle Patrick Mahomes? If a completion occurs, the receiver is credited with the marginal difference. However, Thomas is ranked atop this group because of his three touchdowns scored on slants, and his catch rate of 87.9 percent is also best among any receiver with 10 or more targets in the NFL. 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018. The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics. On top of that, hes not playing a high percentage of his teams snaps in any game. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase, AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons, AP Offensive Player of the Year: Cooper Kupp, AP Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, Rushing Leader: Jonathan Taylor, 1811 Yds, Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 2:31PM. Josh Hermsmeyer was a football writer and analyst. For reasons that will become evident in a moment, the far right column lists each players routes per team pass attempts in 2014. Those types of opportunities vaulted Brown up this list. * These targets are based on play by play data and include penalties. Michael Thomas, the New Orleans wide receiver who led the NFL in receiving yards and set an NFL record for receptions in 20191 on the way to winning Offensive Player of the Year that Mike Thomas might not be an elite receiver? Julio Jones has ranked first in yards per route run in four of the past five seasons, and top-five in each of the past five seasons. RTMs also match up well with existing public benchmarks of receiver performance. Thomas was pressed 49% of the time on crossing routes, yet he posted a catch rate that was 24.9% above expectation on 29 targets. In each of four seasons coached by Mike McCoy (now calling plays for the Cardinals), Antonio Gates totaled at least 85 targets. Yet throughout the offseason, NFL analysts have debated whether Thomass production is best explained by his skill and talent, or if instead hes merely a good receiver who runs a lot of slants and benefits from being in an elite offense. You can find me on Twitter @TheBauerClub, and consider subscribing to my podcast, DynastyTheory. The Vikings pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history last week, but the Next Gen Stats analytics team says it wasn't the most improbable comeback of the season. Last season there were 32 wide receivers to run at least 300 routes and draw a target on at least 20 percent of their routes. Only the Catch and YAC Scores are counted for targeted screen routes, because openness on those routes is due to play design far more than receiver ability. Among running backs, he ranks third in rushing fantasy points per game and first in receiving fantasy points per game. 32) Average Target Distance, 196 (No. That means our models do have some sense of timing. He then has to catch the ball to gain additional yards. If you are looking for the raw data behind this article, do not hesitate to reach out. yards per route run by wide receiver ranks 2021. Specifically, Atlanta ranks 11th-lowest in dropbacks per game over the past three seasons, while Houston, Pittsburgh, and the Giants all rank higher. Otherwise, actual targeted receivers would appear to be less likely to complete a catch. As dynasty fantasy football players, we are constantly trying to stay ahead of the competition by identifying potential breakout players prior to any drastic changes in values. Wide Receivers (14) Jones was targeted deep more frequently, suggesting that his skillset is better suited to the demands of beating fast humans in a footrace, but hes also not as successful at creating separation from defenders as Thomas is. Over the final 2.5 games of the year, Jernigan caught 19 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns. Which game is featured at the top of NGS's unlikeliest victory rankings? 2022 Wide Receiver Stat Busts - Slot Performance . 2 and 3 on this list). He also posted a catch rate above expectation of +14.7 percent on those routes. Then, in week 15, Cruz was injured in the third quarter against Seattle, and did not play again in 2014. So which is it: elite talent, or elite situation? YDS. Last month, we revealed a new set of rushing metrics derived from the ability to calculate Expected Rushing Yards. This approach not only accounts for dedicated double teams, but for coverage methods such as bracketing. Those metrics have offered a new way to see a part of football that largely goes unnoticed -- or at least unquantified. Measuring separation at the time of the throw punishes teammates with great chemistry. As a result, Stills averaged just 1.29 yards per route run, a pretty unimpressive figure. Hunter Renfrow caught 80.5% of the 128 targets thrown his way in 2021. This speaks greatly to Bells value as a fantasy asset. I believe this is because PFF includes passing plays called back due to offensive penalties in the number of routes run by each wide receiver. Advanced stats like depth of target, separation window and completion probability provide greater insight, but they still leave out an important factor. [1]I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But putting the quarterbacks issue aside, the question today is a more global one. 1 in the latest NFL Football Power Index? And that makes sense, at least to me. Regular-season passes of 5 air yards or shorter, minimum of 40 targets. Below are a few tables showing the breakdown and thresholds used during this process. Other players appear able to consistently create separation on short targets Jarvis Landry is one example but the value of Landrys targets as measured by EPA are much lower than those directed at Thomas. Oct 25, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.
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